Gesamtzahl der Seitenaufrufe

Mittwoch, 27. Februar 2019

The Nuclear Game Theory of the India-Pakistan Crisis As President Donald Trump meets with North Korea’s dictator, military escalation in South Asia offers lessons.

LEAH MILLS / REUTERS
What was most revealing about the first day of President Donald Trump’s summit in Vietnam with Kim Jong Un wasn’t the president’s characterization of his private conversation with the North Korean dictator (“Boy, if you could have heard that dialogue, what you would pay for that dialogue”). It wasn’t his refusal to respond to shouted questions about the fact that, back in Washington, D.C., all eyes were on his former lawyer Michael Cohen, who was assailing the president’s character and conduct.
Instead it was what was left unsaid: As Trump sought to persuade Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, enticing his young “friend” with visions of a disarmed North Korea as an “Economic Powerhouse,” India and Pakistan were trading blows in a case study of what conflict looks like when countries successfully obtain nuclear weapons despite international opposition.
The two developments were particularly striking because, as former U.S. officials and experts who have negotiated with Pyongyang over the years have recounted, North Korean often cites India and Pakistan as models of what it ideally wants from the United States: an end to punishment and isolation for pursuing nuclear weapons, tacit recognition of its status as a nuclear-weapons state, and better relations with Washington. That rationale has a cold logic, but holds only as long as North Korea isn’t involved in the kind of back-and-forth that India and Pakistan find themselves in.
“They said it very clearly,” Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. intelligence official who engaged in talks with North Korean officials as recently as 2017, told NK News. “Accept us as a nuclear-weapons state and we will be a good friend of the United States. You’ve done it with Pakistan.” The North Koreans wanted roughly the deal India got from the United States, George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told The Atlantic in describing a 2007 meeting. “What North Korean officials said to me is ‘We’re going to keep our nuclear weapons, and you’re going to end the sanctions and normalize relations and make a peace treaty with us,’” he said in a 2017 interview.
Trump-administration officials insist that their ultimate objective continues to be the “full verified denuclearization” of North Korea, but ahead of the Vietnam summit, they’ve signaled that their near-term goals are far more modest. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has vowed to “reduce the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea,” while Trump has noted that “as long as there’s no [nuclear and missile] testing, we’re happy.” If the outcome of the Vietnam summit is fundamentally about finding ways to minimize the danger to the United States and the world of living with a nuclear North Korea, the dispute between India and Pakistan is instructive of how geopolitics could change as a result.
Two weeks after a terrorist carried out a suicide attack on a convoy of Indian security forces, killing 40 soldiers, the two countries have taken progressively more aggressive action against each other. New Delhi, blaming Pakistan for the bombing, dispatched the Indian air force to strike what it said was a terrorist training camp in Pakistan. Soon after, Islamabad said it had shot down two Indian jets and captured a pilot.
India and Pakistan have fought multiple conflicts since the end of British colonial rule in 1947 resulted in the partition of the subcontinent. Pakistan’s prime minister and senior Indian officials have said they don’t want to see the situation deteriorate any further, but the risk of miscalculation remains high, amid fears that any misstep could trigger all-out war, the first between the two countries since they both developed nuclear weapons—in fact, the first between two nuclear-armed states, ever.
The situation illustrates the paradox a nuclear arsenal poses: Nonproliferation advocates would argue that the danger of escalation into apocalyptic war is why states should not possess such weapons. But it is precisely because of situations like these that countries such as India and Pakistan will never renounce them.
The ongoing hostility elicits questions, not to mention fears, about the point at which the two states are prepared to resort to using nuclear weapons. It brings to the fore the logic of possessing such weapons, whether states are taken seriously as great powers without them, and indeed whether possession of them limits a nation’s military options, especially when its public is baying for war.
Western nations and nonproliferation groups were aghast when India and Pakistan, in quick succession, declared themselves nuclear-weapons states in 1998 amid worsening relations. International sanctions quickly followed, but were mostly lifted in subsequent years amid tacit acknowledgment of the countries’ newfound military capabilities. Since then, the United States has actively encouraged India’s nuclear program and expressed disquiet about the security of Pakistan’s weapons.
Relations between the neighbors, never particularly good, have stayed tense, though until recently any difficulties were confined to political rhetoric and border skirmishes, with two significant exceptions. Nonproliferation activists point to those two incidents—the Kargil conflict of 1999 and a months-long military standoff along their de facto border following a militant attack on India’s Parliament in 2001—as examples of the perils of conflict between nuclear-armed states.
That there hasn’t been a war between India and Pakistan involving nuclear weapons does not mean it cannot happen. The vast majorities of their respective populations have little to no memory of any of the pre-Kargil conflicts (India has a median age of less than 27; Pakistan’s is less than 23). In India, the dominant media sentiment appears to be that Pakistan needs to be taught a lesson for its support of terrorist groups. The government in New Delhi, facing an anxious public and an upcoming election, could feel compelled to act.
Thus far, nuclear weapons are largely why those earlier clashes, and countless others, didn’t develop into full-scale war. On this and other occasions, the bellicose language from the public and media in the two countries hasn’t publicly been matched by their respective prime ministers—this despite the fact that each country has viewed the other as an existential threat since independence. New Delhi and Islamabad see the possession of nuclear weapons not only as cementing their rightful place in the world as powerful nations, but also as providing a credible deterrent against threats, real and perceived.
That, in effect, is the underlying reason few believe Kim will ever give up nuclear weapons. So while the military escalation in South Asia has sparked little public discussion in Hanoi, its implications have nevertheless been felt there.
We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.

Dienstag, 26. Februar 2019

Pakistan shoots down 2 Indian aircraft inside its airspace – military Published time: 27 Feb, 2019 06:32 Edited time: 27 Feb, 2019 06:33

Pakistan shoots down 2 Indian aircraft inside its airspace – military

Früher – zu Zeiten ihres Vorsitzenden Walter Leisler Kiep – stand die Atlantikbrücke für bedingungslose Treue zum großen Verbündeten USA. Schon in der Amtszeit von Friedrich Merz wurde daraus eine kritische Partnerschaft. Sigmar Gabriel dürfte die Abteilung Widerspruch weiter entwickeln, was die Stimme der Atlantikbrücke nur bedeutsamer macht.

Bild: Sigmar Gabriel während einer Rede
imago
Friedrich Merz gibt sein Amt als Chef der Atlantik-Brücke auf. Nach Informationen des „Handelsblatts“ wird auf der Mitgliederversammlung im Juni bereits der ehemalige SPD-Chef und frühere Außenminister Sigmar Gabriel zum Nachfolger gewählt. Früher – zu Zeiten ihres Vorsitzenden Walter Leisler Kiep – stand die Atlantikbrücke für bedingungslose Treue zum großen Verbündeten USA. Schon in der Amtszeit von Friedrich Merz wurde daraus eine kritische Partnerschaft. Sigmar Gabriel dürfte die Abteilung Widerspruch weiter entwickeln, was die Stimme der Atlantikbrücke nur bedeutsamer macht. Gerade in der Ära Trump braucht Amerika keinen deutschen Nickdackel, sondern einen europäischen Freund, der auch Nein sagen kann. Der Untertitel dieses Amtswechsels lautet in die Sprache von Donald Trump übersetzt: Bis hierher und nicht weiter.

Ich wünsche Ihnen einen ausgeruhten Start in den neuen Tag. Es grüßt Sie auf das Herzlichste Ihr

Gabor Steingart
Journalist & Buchautor

Russian TV Lists Nuclear Targets In The US "For Now, We’re Not Threatening Anyone": Russian TV Lists Nuclear Targets In The US

Russian TV Lists Nuclear Targets In The US

"For Now, We’re Not Threatening Anyone": Russian TV Lists Nuclear Targets In The US

With US-Russia relations deteriorating rapidly in the aftermath of the collapse of the INF nuclear arms treaty, which prompted Russia's Vladimir Putin to slam the US for "demolishing" global security, Russian state television listed U.S. military facilities that Moscow would target in the event of a nuclear strike, in a report which Reuters said "was unusual even by its own bellicose standards" and said that a hypersonic missile Russia is developing would be able to hit them in less than five minutes. The targets included the Pentagon, Forth Ritchie and the presidential retreat in Camp David, Maryland. A hypersonic missile Russia is developing would be able to hit them in less than five minutes, it said.
The report was broadcast on Sunday evening, days after President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was militarily ready for a “Cuban Missile”-style crisis if the United States wanted one.
In the Sunday evening broadcast, Dmitry Kiselyov, presenter of Russia’s main weekly TV news show ‘Vesti Nedeli’, showed a map of the United States and identified several targets he said Moscow would want to hit in the event of a nuclear war. The targets, which Kiselyov described as U.S. presidential or military command centers, also included Fort Ritchie, a military training center in Maryland closed in 1998, McClellan, a U.S. Air Force base in California closed in 2001, and Jim Creek, a naval communications base in Washington state.
Kiselyov, who is close to the Kremlin, said the “Tsirkon” (‘Zircon’) hypersonic missile - which reportedly can travel at five times the speed of sound - that Russia is developing could hit the targets in less than five minutes if launched from Russian submarines.
“For now, we’re not threatening anyone, but if such a deployment takes place, our response will be instant,” he said.
As Reuters notes, Kiselyov is one of the main conduits of state television’s strongly anti-American tone, once saying Moscow could turn the United States into radioactive ash. Asked to comment on Kiselyov’s report, the Kremlin said on Monday it did not interfere in state TV’s editorial policy.
In the aftermath of Trump's suspension of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), and with tensions rising over Russian fears that the United States might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe as a Cold War-era arms-control treaty unravels, Putin has said Russia would be forced to respond by placing hypersonic nuclear missiles on submarines near U.S. waters.
In response, the United States says it has no immediate plans to deploy such missiles in Europe and has dismissed Putin’s warnings as disingenuous propaganda. While the US does not currently have ground-based intermediate-range nuclear missiles that it could place in Europe, the decision to quit the 1987 Treaty over an alleged Russian violation - something Moscow denies - has freed it to start developing and deploying such missiles.
Putin has said Russia does not want a new arms race, but has also dialled up his military rhetoric.
Some analysts have seen his approach as a tactic to try to re-engage the United States in talks about the strategic balance between the two powers, something Moscow has long pushed for. Meanwhile, the collapse of the INF has freed US-based neocon warmongers and defense companies to start preparing for the inevitable next (nuclear) arms race between the two nations. The only question is not if but when China decides to officially join.